Maple Leafs vs Islanders Picks | 01-11-2024

Maple Leafs vs Islanders Picks | 01-11-2024

Updated January 11, 2024By Tony Reyes

When: Thursday, January 11th at 7:00 PM ET

Who: Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

Where: UBS Arena in Elmont, NY

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ hot streak is skating on thin ice as they face the New York Islanders, with the odds stacked against them in a game where regression could hit harder than a body check.

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Leafs fans, brace yourselves. The Toronto Maple Leafs are cruising on a four-game heater, but they’re about to hit a patch of rough ice at UBS Arena against the New York Islanders.

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It’s the classic tale of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, and something’s got to give. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats that are turning heads and why the Leafs might just be facing an uphill battle in their skates tonight.

Toronto’s been lighting the lamp with gusto, outscoring opponents 9-2 on a sunny California road trip before icing the Sharks with a 7-1 victory at home. With Mitch Marner collecting four points against San Jose and Auston Matthews finding his scoring touch again, the Leafs’ offensive juggernaut seems unstoppable.

But let’s not forget the unforgiving mistress that is regression. Looking at the Leafs’ recent prosperity, there’s a potential shadow looming over their success – the dreaded regression to the mean.

Toronto’s shot at extending their win streak to five straight games isn’t a walk in the park or a glide on the rink. The Islanders have proven to be a thorn in the side for the Leafs, with a 4-3 OT win the last time these two squads clashed on Long Island.

The Islanders, currently stuck in a rut, having dropped four of their last five, are desperate to return to winning ways. And let’s be real, desperation can turn any team into a dangerous opponent.

Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson have been spearheading the Isles’ offense, and they’re not the type to back down from a challenge. With the Leafs hitting the road, the Isles have the home-ice advantage and a point to prove.

Toronto Maple Leafs to winToronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders

-130

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The Leafs have been solid defensively, limiting their opponents’ chances and keeping shots to the outskirts. Martin Jones has been a brick wall in the net, rocking a .972 save percentage during the winning streak.

But even the Great Wall had its weak points, and the Leafs’ defensive brigade isn’t immune to the occasional crack. Plus, with the Islanders looking to replicate their previous success against the boys in blue, it’s a prime setup for an upset.

New York Islanders to win gameToronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders

+110

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Total Goals

On the injury front, the Leafs are nursing some wounds. With Matt Murray out with a hip issue, Joseph Woll still recovering from an ankle sprain, and Jake Muzzin done for the season, Toronto’s depth is being tested. And tests in the NHL come harder than final exams at Harvard. Meanwhile, the Islanders are dealing with their own MASH unit.

Ryan Pulock, Semyon Varlamov, and Robert Bortuzzo are all sidelined, which could be a factor that evens out the playing field or further tilts it, depending on perspective.

So, what’s the play here? It’s not about being a downer on the Leafs’ recent success but about recognizing the patterns and pitfalls of a grueling NHL season. The Leafs have been hot, but every streak has its end, and tonight could very well be that chill that cools down the Leafs’ fire.

Ultimately, it comes down to this: the Leafs are up against an Islanders team that’s backed into a corner and fighting to turn their season around.

The home team is hungry, and the Leafs must be ready for a scrap. The Islanders have the edge with history and desperation on their side, and as anyone who’s ever placed a bet knows, those intangibles can be just as crucial as any stat on a sheet.

So, Leafs Nation, keep the faith but don’t throw caution to the wind. The Islanders are a team with a point to prove, and the Leafs could be caught in the crossfire.

Tonight’s matchup isn’t just a game; it’s a clash of wills on ice. Buckle up for what could be a wake-up call in the form of a history lesson as the Leafs look to keep their streak alive against an Islanders squad that’s eager to play spoiler.

Over 6.5 GoalsToronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders

-120

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Author: Keith Stewart